Nordic corporate bank SEB has revised its forecast lower on the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the U.S dollar to 6.10 by the end of this year, an appreciation of 3.174% over their previous projection of 6.30. By the end of 2019 the bank’s analysts predict the Greenback at CNY5.80 - indicating an almost 5% strengthening on an earlier forecast (6.10).
Today at 10:29 a.m. New York time, the USD/CNY spot rate was quoted on Bloomberg at 6.2888, which was -0.0351 (-0.56%) off from the overnight position. And, were SEB’s end of year forecast for 2018 were to prove to correct it would mean the Yuan would have strengthened by 3%. A week ago on 24 January USD/CNY rate stood at 6.37.
But illustrating how things change, last week ago the bank published its latest Currency Strategy report citing a slower economy for China, but a stronger CNY - albeit at 6.30 by year end. The 12-month consensus on the currency pair was put at between 6.49 and 6.54 according to Bloomberg's survey FX forecasts.